Head-2-Head-X / Draft Prediction Game

Everyone loves mock drafts and spreadsheets so here's a game to predict the entire draft and see how close you can get!

 

A few rules/guidelines:

- Winner is determined by whoever has the least points.  Points are determined by calculating the absolute difference between predicted draft position and actual draft position for each player and adding them all up.  Or, to put it in mathematical terms: points = SUM(|| [Builder]_pred - [Builder]_actual ||)

- Draft position is calculated based on a snake order:

- All replacements are treated as draft position no. 73, assuming that there continues to be 12 rounds.  If the number of rounds is changed, the replacement number will be number of total draftees +1.

- Since there will likely be last minute signups/a short turnaround time before the draft, participants will likely fail to add some draftees to their prediction.  For each builder that is drafted, but not included in a participant's draft/replacement prediction, the average prediction difference of the participants prediction will be added to their score.

- You are allowed to edit your predictions up until the actual draft time as players continue to sign up.  In the spirit of the game, try to only update your predictions to account for newly signed up players, and not to update your guesses based on others' predictions.  

- Although I assume they would not want to give away their draft strategy, confirmed captains are not allowed to participate as they will obviously have some insider knowledge on how the draft will go.  Those who signed up as captains but were not chosen are free to participate.  

 

Since this is all a little complicated in writing, here's an example first round draft: 

 

 

- stevenA was predicted as pick 1 and was drafted as pick 1.  This pick contributes |1-1| = 0 points to the final score.

- steveK was predicted as pick 2 and was drafted as pick 5.  This guess contributes |2-5| = 3 points to the final score.

- steve032 was predicted as pick 3, but ended up being a replacement.  This guess contributes |3-73| = 70 points to the final score.

- stevesmithjr was predicted as a replacement, but was drafted pick 4.  This guess contributes |73-4| = 69 points to the final score.

- stevenvdk and Steve were predicted as replacements, and ended up being replacements.  Both these guesses contribued |73-73| = 0 points to the final score.

- steve1: |4-2| = 2

- EhSteve8690: |4-73| = 69

- steveodotcom1: |6-3| = 3

- coastersteve was neither predicted as a draftee, nor replacement.  However, he ended up being drafted pick 5.  This guess contributes the average score per guess, in this case 24 points.

- The participants final score, after calculating all guesses + players that were not guessed but were drafted: 0 + 3 + 70 + 69 + 0 + 0 + 2 + 69 + 3 + 24 = 240.  

 

Here's mine! While I'm somewhat accounting for what captain might pick

who, getting as close as I can to overall draft position is my most important goal, since choosing the wrong captain but only being off by a couple draft positions will add few points.    

 

 

EDIT: Updating this to add new sign-ups while also accounting for captain is fucking impossible but we're going to roll with this lol

 

dont hate me i kept forgetting great people and i refused to go back and redo it at any point

 

 

Don't take this too seriously lol. Also accounting for how captains might think and what they might prioritise.

This was so difficult

 

Jens you got 6/13 right for me, pretty impressive

Realizing a flaw with this game in addition to being a pain in the dick to make a prediction, is being a pain in the dick to calculate score.  so yall are on your own with calculating your scores lol.  Anyway here's my results: 

 

 

 

That comes out to a total score of 529.  I'm realizing that average number of draft positions error is much more informative though, and that number for me was 6.37 (divide score by # of all players that participated in the draft, which was 83).

You left Lilith off that last list, Cam. Just so you know. Not that I can be very critical because I didn’t know enough to make a list.

Whoops part of the list got cut off by going across monitors!