H2H9 / Fun With Probabilities

I'm a stats nerd by profession and today I got bored, so I decided to examine team results through the lens of vote distributions. Basically, this is a calculation of "for an average voter, how many times should we expect that they had voted for a specific club, given the distribution of votes cast by other members?" So for example, someone voting against the Tile Inspectors in each match to this point would have had a roughly 1-in-70 percent chance of occurring organically through five rounds. 

Alternatively, this is a way to answer "what is the distribution of expected wins for each club, given their match results?" I probably should have waited until the end of round 6 but here we are.

EAST DIVISION

Cereal Killers

5 wins: 1.8% (1 in 54)

4 wins: 14.4%

3 wins: 33.7%

2 wins: 33.3%

1 win: 14.5%

0 wins: 2.3% (1 in 44)

Actual Wins: 3

Match Outcomes: 53.2%, 61.5%, 43.8%, 72.7%, 17.7%

Logan's Run

5 wins: 4.5%

4 wins: 20.2%

3 wins: 34.8%

2 wins: 28.4%

1 win: 10.7%

0 wins: 1.4% (1 in 72)

Actual Wins: 2

Match Outcomes: 48.2%, 79.2%, 56.2%, 45.6%, 46.0%

- a convincing victory raises their floor, but four tight matches means there's a lot of randomness, signified by a 1-3 record in tight votes so far

Scream Queens

5 wins: 0.4% (1 in 264)

4 wins: 4.8%

3 wins: 20.1%

2 wins: 36.5%

1 win: 29.6%

0 wins: 8.7%

Actual Wins: 2

Match Outcomes: 51.8%, 38.5%, 13.6%, 25.8%, 54.0%

- some bad losses with no strong victories yet, they're about where we'd expect given those results

This is cool, thanks for putting it together!