Contests / NEDC5 Breakdown

Its about time we see some more hype for this contest and although I'm not participating, I wanted to contribute somehow.  Feel free to vehemently disagree and call me a dumbass, or add your own predictions below!

 

Jaguar - Of course the first person on this list is the person I have the least idea what he will build or where he will place.  His releases over the last year and half have been impressively varied but also increasingly refined. There’s a slight chance he’ll submit something shitposty or totally off the wall which might land him towards the back of the pack, but if he achieves the perfect balance of refinement and ambition he could land a design that pushes into the high 70s. 

Submission likelihood: Medium high 

Score Range: 5-80%

 

Scoop - One of the more contest-oriented members of the site with the vast majority of his output being either for contests or multiplayer.  A very reliable middle of the pack builder, but could push his way into the upper half if he can pull off something like CyberNior on a fuller scale.  

Submission likelihood: High

Score Range: 60-75%

 

Recurious - If he’s able to finish something it will no doubt be high quality and possibly top 5.  However, he’s been quiet lately after dropping out of MM and his highly detailed style may prevent him from easily finishing an entry.  

Submission likelihood: Medium low

Score Range: 70-85% 

 

In:Cities - He’s been very active lately and is seemingly having a major breakthrough with his potential spotlight quality Sea World park.  Since he’s stopped posting screens from it, but is still active I’d say there’s a good chance he’s working on an entry. Conditions seem ripe for him to make a possible top 5 finish.  

Submission likelihood: High

Score Range: 70-85%

 

][ntamin22 - A notoriously meticulous and slow builder who is also balancing posting one screen a month of his 9 park megaresort.  Yet he is skilled enough to have gotten a design in the past even with a somewhat unfinished entry. If he signed up I have a feeling he’s going to try to finish something but I am unsure what state or game it will be in.  

Submission likelihood: Medium

Score Range: 65-75%

 

RWE - A consistently solid builder with a skill for European style architecture, but I think he sometimes lacks on the concept side.  If he submits I think it will be a solid design winner, but he will have to challenge himself conceptually to break into the upper tier.

Submission likelihood: Medium

Score Range: 60-75%

 

Ottersalad - Based on his recent Lakeside Park, this is another builder I think is due for a big breakthrough.  If he takes the feedback he’s received and applies it to the design format he could have solid results.  Apparently he has also already finished his submission, and if he is already happy with it at this point, he must’ve been fairly inspired.  I think he might surprise people and place close to the top 5. 

Submission Likelihood: Very high (already submitted?)

Score Range: 60-75%

 

KaiBueno - Between his MM entries and wrapping up The Master’s Palette he has had a very active comeback this year.  He has stayed true to his old school, colorful fantasy style, showing little signs of wanting to change it up.  While I love and appreciate this style, it might not win him over in voting enough for him to finish in the top half.  Nonetheless, I expect something interesting and possibly his first design accolade.  

Submission Likelihood: High

Score Range: 55-65%

 

Merzbow666 - One of the few members that has stayed true to LL in the age of OpenRCT, and they have signaled they will build in LL if they submit something.  Their MM entry, while solid, was unable to win in a crowded field, however their recent screens show the potential for 80+ work.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium

Score Range: 60-80%

 

Mamarillas - An exciting new member that joined for MM and has displayed a lot of creativity from his submissions on Deurklink’s server.  I look forward to whatever he has to build and think he will continue improving. Voting wise, he is still adapting to the NE detail-oriented meta and some of his stylistic choices might keep him from a high-placing finish but I still think he will finish towards the middle, which is impressive for a newcomer.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium High

Score Range: 55-70%

 

Zxbiohazardzx - Haven’t seen much from him lately and while he was fairly active as a floater in H2H, none of his contributions were immediately recognizable.  While he has had high quality, interesting screens in the past, his only recent work appears more classic scenario-oriented. Honestly will be surprised if he submits something, and if so I think it may not stand out enough to place highly.  

Submission Likelihood: Low

Score Range: 50-60%

 

Hoobaroo - One of the most exciting upcoming fantasy builders on the site after his surprise top 4 MM finish, yet he has been mostly quiet since then.  If he submits at the level of his MM entries, he should be able to snag a design and finish in the top half. It's also possible he continues his rapid trajectory of improvement displayed between his first screens and his final MM entries, in which case he is a serious contender to finish towards the top and possibly become a parkmaker.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium

Score Range: 65-85%

 

Jene - Another newcomer who has displayed rapid improvement between his first park and most recent submissions and has settled into a distinctly Dutch, faas-esque style of building.  While his last design submission came up short, largely due to the layout itself, the potential is there and this is another person that could have a breakthrough if they continue to improve.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium high

Score Range: 55-70%

 

FredD - A longtime productive member and one who’s design submissions have oscillated between well composed and impressive (Hy-Breasi, Arevik), and trying a little too hard and missing the mark (Kingfisher).  It’s hard to tell which FredD will show up, but if he submits I think it will be somewhere between those two goalposts, which, depending on number of submissions, could land him in the top 5 once again.

Submission Likelihood: Medium high

Score Range: 60-75%

 

Jappy - For awhile I thought his style was more suited towards full scale solos, but his first MM entry showed he could impress with smaller scale as well.  If he builds with that level of ambition and concept he could finish in the top half. However, he seemed to be having issues with finding time to finish so he may end up submitting something more stripped down.

Submission Likelihood: Medium high

Score Range: 65-77% 

 

WhosLeon - One of the most highly regarded upcoming parkmakers for a while who finally had his parkmaker-making release earlier this year.  If he does finish something, it will be annoyingly perfect and beautiful, if not conceptually groundbreaking, and I doubt he would end up finishing any lower than 3rd or 4th place.  However, he has been significantly less active after finishing Fujin so it’s hard to tell if he will end up submitting.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium low

Score Range: 75-85% 

 

Robbie92 - His sign-up seemed to be very non committal and his activity has been low recently, but if he does end up submitting it is hard to envision a world where he doesn’t finish in the top 2.

Submission Likelihood: Low

Score Range: 75-90% 

 

Terry Inferno - He has ascended the ranks of NCSO builders and although he has some recent CSO work, I imagine he will end up going with NCSO for this contest.  His most recent work has continued pushing into the upper 70s so if he submits he has potential at a top 5 finish and becoming a parkmaker.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium

Score Range: 65-80% 

 

CoasterCreator9 - Interested to see how NE’s resident boat boi will be able to fit a sprawling suspended layout onto a boat, although he has signaled he will try something outside his comfort zone.  His MM entry was subtly beautiful but lacking enough substance to win over voters, but I would love to see a larger scale release in that style. Overall am expecting an upper-middle placing from him.

Submission Likelihood: High

Score Range: 65-75%

 

Bigshootergill - As one of the site’s most concept-oriented fantasy builders, this contest seems potentially suited to his style.  He has displayed impressive range in the last year between his highly expected MM entries, the slightly less overtly fantasy Fossegrimen, and his surprisingly productive LL output.  If he submits I’d expect a top 5 or close finish.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium

Score Range: 65-80%

 

Steve - The Ghoulmonger himself seems highly motivated to avenge his second-place tie finish in the last NEDC.  His slightly old school aesthetics-oriented approach should easily land him in the top 5 and he seems determined to win it all.  However, if a Robbie, Leon, or his arch nemesis alex shows up again he might be doomed to 2nd-place obscurity once again.  

Submission Likelihood: High

Score Range: 70-85%

 

Mattk48 - One of my favorite “new” builders who has displayed his talents at crispy semi-realism in both this years MM and RCTgo Rush contests.  Another builder that seems poised for a surprise finish if he ends up submitting.

Submission Likelihood: Medium

Score Range: 60-75%

 

Alex - The defending NEDC champion and obviously a dangerous builder if he submits a serious entry.  However he has been somewhat inactive recently and submitted a “fun” (though still pleasant) entry for MM, so I have doubts whether he has the time or motivation to build a winner again.  I think it is just as likely that he ends up building a quick classic LL entry as it that he builds to win, if he submits at all.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium Low

Score Range: 55-90% 

 

BarnNID - Another NE newcomer that has quickly displayed a lot of activity and skill.  His last two submissions have been silver level scope and quality, but it feels almost inevitable to me that he will continue improving into the gold range with time.  I’m excited to see what he builds and think focusing on a single layout rather than a full-scale solo may give him the chance to refine his abilities into a high-placing submission.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium High

Score Range: 55-70%

 

Tolsimir - One of NE’s longtime strongest fantasy and conceptual builders, as well as someone who builds almost exclusively in contests.  He is long overdue to become a parkmaker in my opinion, and if he submits, I have a feeling he will finally hit that 80% mark that has eluded him for so long.  

Submission Likelihood: Medium

Score Range: 75-85%

A very interesting and IMO correct write-up. This is exactly the stuff we need for NEDC, some more hype and attention to it! I'm very much looking forward to all the entries!

 

BTW, everyone gets a rounded number, why the hell did I get "65 - 77"??? I take offense at that

Whew. Quite comprehensive!! Really cool. Are you the new Milo with these predictions?? And for the record, I’m almost done!! Could finish my entry if I’m productive in the next 1-2 sessions. But I might wait til the last day to submit my entry.

Cool writeups!  I think my most anticipated entries are hooba, mama, merz, and otter.  Fresh ideas!

Nice write up - will be interesting which I finish, started one that will be too big likely, then a 2nd as a back up.

Submission ?

nice writeup thanks for doing these
a lot of people im looking forward to seeing from
hopefully some ll

Love a good write up..

 

I'd like to see alex try to defend his title; but, I can see anyone in that list pull out a winning entry.  Looking forward to what Josh, Tols, and CC9 come up with.  Jag showed a wild screen in the discord that has the basics of something amazing.  I'd like to see ][ release something in his sort of engineered and meticulously planned style.

Recurious - [/size]If he’s able to finish something it will no doubt be high quality and possibly top 5.  However, he’s been quiet lately after dropping out of MM and his highly detailed style may prevent him from easily finishing an entry.  [/size]
Submission likelihood: [/size]Medium low[/size]
Score Range: [/size]70-85% [/size] 

Lol the "if he is able to finish something" is accurate here . I did actually start on my entry but if I will be able to finish it is doubtful. Thanks for the praise though.

I like the optimism for me haha, I've already submitted my entry for this contest and tbh I more or less just had fun with it:) idk if It'll be able to stack up against the competition haha

Thanks for this Cam, very nice read.

Great read, love this stuff around contests. The likelihood of my entry being completed at a medium is far too high lol.

So...

Knowing that there's 10 of us...and mostly who they are...what is your predicted order: go!

CoasterCreator9
InCities
Intamin
Tolsimir
Mamarillas

Jene

Mattk48
Ottersalad
Jappy
KaiBeuno
Jaguar
...
Steve

It’s a tough call so many people have potential to win

theres no one on that list im not excited to see a release from