H2H8 / Saxman's Elo Predictions
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15-April 18
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saxman1089
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As some on the Discord might remember, I came up with some Elo ratings for each mock draft team. Well, guess what! It's time to see actual ratings for the actual teams!
These ratings are formulated based only on past H2H performances of each player. Starting with H2H5 and each team having a rating of 1500, I calculated the Elo rating for each team after each match, with the final ratings obtained after the full season. Then, every member on each of the teams would carry over their team's rating (regressed by 1/3 to the mean) to whatever their next team was. Then, the team rating for the new season would be calculated by averaging the ratings for all of the team's members. Are there better ways to do it? Of course. But those would be difficult and time-consuming, and this is for fun, after all.
Without further ado, here are the pre-R1 ratings and the predictions for each match!
R1M1 - The Replacements (1500) vs. Strangelove (1498) - 50.4% win probability for The Replacements
R1M2 - Team Spacecrab (1507) vs. The Icons (1498) - 51.3% win probability for Team Spacecrab
R1M3 - UltraRealists (1496) vs. Heaven's Gallery (1535) - 55.6% win probability for Heaven's Gallery
Pre-round 1, it seems that all the teams are approximately level, with Liam's team a bit out in front due to him grabbing up higher rated players from his H2H7 team.
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End of Round 1 Update:
1. Heaven's Gallery (1-0) - 1535 to 1537
2. Team Spacecrab (1-0) - 1507 to 1528
3. Strangelove (1-0) - 1498 to 1501
4. The Replacements (0-1) - 1500 to 1497
5. UltraRealists (0-1) - 1496 to 1493
6. The Icons (0-1) - 1498 to 1476
Heaven's Gallery was expected to win by about a 55% margin, they won by a 61% margin, therefore their rating stayed about the same but increased slightly. Similar outcomes for the UltraRealists, and the Strangelove/Replacements match. Team Spacecrab's dominant win over The Icons caused a large change in the ratings for both those teams.
Predictions for Round 2:
R2M1 - The Icons (1476, 0-1) vs. Heaven's Gallery (1537, 1-0) - 58.8% win probability for Heaven's Gallery
R2M2 - UltraRealists (1493, 0-1) vs. Strangelove (1501, 1-0) - 51.1% win probability for Strangelove
R2M3 - The Replacements (1497, 0-1) vs. Team Spacecrab (1528, 1-0) - 54.4% win probability for Team Spacecrab
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End of Round 2 Update:
1. Heaven's Gallery (1-1) - 1537 to 1525
2. Team Spacecrab (1-1) - 1528 to 1522
3. Strangelove (2-0) - 1501 to 1511
4. The Replacements (1-1) - 1500 to 1505
5. The Icons (1-1) - 1476 to 1498
6. UltraRealists (0-2) - 1493 to 1482
Predictions for Round 3:
R3M1 - Team Spacecrab (1522, 1-1) vs. Heaven's Gallery (1525, 1-1) - 50.5% win probability for Heaven's Gallery
R3M2 - The Icons (1498, 1-1) vs. Strangelove (1511, 2-0) - 51.9% win probability for Strangelove
R3M3 - The Replacements (1505, 1-1) vs. UltraRealists (1482, 0-2) - 53.4% win probability for The Replacements
I honestly thought we'd see a bit more divergence in the ratings by now, but I think we can all agree that the parks have been high quality this season, and the teams seem pretty evenly balanced. I'd rate all the matches this week as a toss-up.
How am I doing at predicting the outcome of matches? I'm batting .500 right now, with 3 matches correctly predicted and 3 matches incorrectly predicted.
And finally, for those that like graphs:
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End of Round 3 Update:
1. Heaven's Gallery (2-1) - 1525 to 1532
2. Strangelove (3-0) - 1511 to 1523
3. Team Spacecrab (1-2) - 1522 to 1514
4. The Replacements (2-1) - 1505 to 1504
5. The Icons (1-2) - 1498 to 1483
6. UltraRealists (0-3) - 1482 to 1483
Predictions for Round 4:
R4M1 - Heaven's Gallery vs. The Replacements - 54% win probability for Heaven's Gallery
R4M2 - The Icons vs. UltraRealists - 50.04% win probability for The Icons
R4M3 - Strangelove vs. Team Spacecrab - 51% win probability for Strangelove
Well well well, we've seen this before. All three match predictions are again pretty close, close enough to call them all toss-ups. The ratings are also beginning to reflect the standings, with Team Spacecrab falling a spot, and Strangelove getting closer and closer to overtaking Heaven's Gallery. One interesting note to make about this past week's matches: although the Replacements won, their rating fell a point because they won by less than the predicted margin. Is this a sign that the UltraRealists are staging a comeback? Only next week will tell!
Finally, I went 3 for 3 in predictions this week, with my record for the overall contest so far standing at 6 out of 9. Not a bad improvement for one round!
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End of Round 4 Update:
1. Team Spacecrab (2-2) - 1514 to 1535
2. Heaven's Gallery (3-1) - 1532 to 1531
3. The Replacements (2-2) - 1504 to 1505
4. Strangelove (3-1) - 1523 to 1504
5. UltraRealists (1-3) - 1483 to 1485
6. The Icons (1-3) - 1483 to 1481
Predictions for Round 5:
R5M1 - Strangelove vs. Heaven's Gallery - 54% win probability for Heaven's Gallery
R5M2 - The Replacements vs. The Icons - 53% win probability for The Replacements
R5M3 - Team Spacecrab vs. UltraRealists - 57% win probability for Team Spacecrab
Team Spacecrab made a huge jump in the ratings with their definitive win over Strangelove, while the other team ratings remained mostly constant due to the matches' outcomes and how close they were with the predictions. Ranking teams according to ratings and comparing to the official standings, we can see that the bottom two teams are the same on both lists, while the top four teams in the Elo ratings are a bit jumbled. This is probably because the Elo ratings implicitly take into account the winning percentage in establishing the best teams. How did I do on predicting the outcomes this week? I went 1 for 3 this week, making my overall record 7-5, or a 58% success rate. Yay, I'm slightly better than flipping a coin!
What do we have in store for next round? More close predictions, with HG, Replacements, and Spacecrabs pulling out some wins. And the most important question: who makes the playoffs? The ratings predict that Spacecrabs and Replacements will be heading to the big time, and that the Icons and UltraRealists will be packing their bags for the trip home.
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End of Round Robin Update:
1. Team Spacecrab (2-3) - 1535 to 1529
2. Strangelove (4-1) - 1504 to 1520
2. Heaven's Gallery (3-2) - 1531 to 1518
3. The Replacements (3-2) - 1504 to 1511
5. UltraRealists (2-3) - 1485 to 1496
6. The Icons (1-4) - 1481 to 1455
Predictions for Semifinals:
SFM1 - Strangelove vs. Team Spacecrab - 51% win probability for Team Spacecrab
SFM2 - The Replacements vs. Heaven's Gallery - 51% win probability for Heaven's Gallery
Not sure what to say that hasn't been already said about Round 5. By Elo ratings, the top four teams made it into the playoffs, even if the ranking is a bit different. As for the semis, both matches are essentially toss ups.
Where am I at as far as predictions go? Overall I'm 8-7, so still slightly better than flipping a coin...
-----------------------------------------------------------End of Semifinals Update:1. Team Spacecrab (3-3) - 1529 to 15402. Heaven's Gallery (4-2) - 1518 to 15303. Strangelove (4-2) - 1520 to 15083. The Replacements (3-3) - 1511 to 1499Predictions for FinalFinal - Heaven's Gallery vs. Team Spacecrab - 51% win probability for Team SpacecrabHere it is, the final prediction of the season! Looks like it will be a very tight match, with Team Spacecrab barely pulling out the victory!Where am I at as far as predictions go? Overall I'm 10-7, which is pretty good for a system I made up just for fun!
-----------------------------------------------------------End of H2H8 Update:
1. Team Spacecrab (4-3) - 1540 to 1556
2. Heaven's Gallery (4-3) - 1530 to 1513Where did I end up for predictions? I'm 11-7, which again, is not that bad for a very rough system!
As for some comparing to other championship teams, here are the final ratings for each of the championship teams for H2H5 onward.H2H5 Hurricanes: 1536H2H6 Heaven's Kitchen: 1554H2H7 Heaven's Atlas: 1582H2H8 Team Spacecrab: 1556What do you think of the end result? How do you think the H2H8 Team Spacecrab compares with other championship teams? Do the ratings make sense? Let us know in the comments below!
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Iron Rattler
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Nice to see this. Will the ELO ratings change after each match, or remain constant? Interesting to see our team at the bottom of the ELO, in contrast to the prediction thread
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saxman1089
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They will be updated after each match, based on the vote count. For example, if the Replacements just barely beat Strangelove, the ratings for those two teams will stay about the same. If the Replacements blow Strangelove out of the water (or vice versa), you'll see a large change in the ratings. An example of this from H2H7:
R5M2 - Rat Pack (1486) vs. Stallions (1460), Rat Pack with 54% chance of winning. They got 55% of the vote, and the ratings afterwards were 1487 and 1459 for Rat Pack and Stallions, respectively.
R5M3 - Hurricanes (1477) vs. Robber Barons (1515), Robber Barons with 55% chance of winning. Hurricanes won with 85% of the vote, and the ratings afterward were 1501 and 1498 for the canes and barons, respectively.
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Cocoa
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Interesting that were given higher odds for match 2. Wouldnt have thought so, in my head were still the underdogs... -
saxman1089
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Two upsets this week when looking at the ratings! Look out for an update later today!
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saxman1089
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Interesting that were given higher odds for match 2. Wouldnt have thought so, in my head were still the underdogs...
I'm excited to see how much you guys moved up after this week and where you end up.
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