H2H8 / Liam's Statistical Wisdom - Episode II: H2H Veterans

As lots of you probably know by now, I have a massive excel sheet chronicling the history of H2H with data on players, teams and matchups. There's a lot of useful knowledge and random trivia to be gained from all those tables and numbers, which I hope to tell you more about after this season ends. I can already share some simple analyses though, based on team composition. Below you'll find the first post of hopefully many.
 

1. Team Continuity

The Icons, The Hurricanes, the Flying Germans, Heaven's X. There are a couple of team names that are deeply ingrained in the culture of NE. This H2H8, there was less surprise of old team names like the Icons and Strangelove returning than there was surprise that the Hurricanes were not returning. For the past fourteen years, the Hurricanes were a thing. Kumba hasn't retired though, and neither have many of the former Hurricanes members. The Canes' team spirit lives on, implicitly, and fragmented. Some teams are more explicitly continued. In this post I'll look at all the H2H8 teams, figuring out what teams they are the (spiritual) successors of.

Heaven's Gallery
Heaven's Gallery bears the most resemblance to Heaven's Atlas from H2H7 (4/11 players) and Heaven's Kitchen from H2H6 (3/11 players), with myself, Steve and Sulakke being team regulars. Bigshootergill is the other returning Atlas member. Six Frags captained the Alpha Legends in H2H5, of which he and Sulakke are now both on Heaven's Gallery (2/11). Six Frags was on the Hurricanes in H2H3, H2H6 and H2H7 (dropping out in the latter), while Steve was on the Hurricanes in H2H4. Depending on how you look at it, that could mean that Heaven's Gallery is (2/11) Hurricane. The four former Heaven's members are the teams only previous H2H champions, with Steve having an additional championship from the H2H4 Hurricanes.

Icons
Although the team name is a very old one, none of the Icons have ever been on the Icons before. The only player from a previous Icons team in H2H8 is Cedarpoint6, who is a part of Heaven's Gallery now. The teams the Icons from H2H8 bear most resemblance to are the Robber Barons from H2H7 (2/11) with Robbie92 and RWE, and Heaven's Atlas (2/11) with FredD and Coasterbill. Captain Louis! and robbie92 have both been on the Flying Germans (2/11), but in different seasons. Robbie92, FredD and Coasterbill are the only previous champions on the team.

Replacements
Although the name implies that nin got his old H2H6 gang back together, only he himself is on returning to this team. On paper this team has more in common with the H2H7 Hurricanes (3/11), with nin reappearing alongside Pacificoaster and RCT2Day. Casimir was a Hurricane in H2H5, making for an overall (4/11) Hurricane share. Casimir was also a Flying German in H2H6, while SSSammy was a Flying German in H2H5. Therefore, The Replacements are (2/11) Flying German. Gdb and Poke being on the team also results in a (2/11) Italian Stallions share). Casimiar, nin and Pacificoaster have won H2H before.

Team Spacecrab
When ][ntamin22 went for Tolsimir in the second round of the draft, it was clear that he draft to make a more Heavenly team than I could draft myself. The numbers reflect this: Team Spacecrab is (4/11) heavenly, with dr dirt, Fisch and Tolsimir coming from Heaven's Atlas, and Camcorder22 being a Heaven's Kitchen member. Fisch and dr dirt are on the same team for the third time, although it was a different team every time. Before Team Spacecrab and Heaven's Atlas, they were both Hurricanes in H2H5. Before dropping out, Coupon was also a Hurricane in H2H7, making for a (3/11) Hurricane composition in the most liberal interpretation. dr dirt is also reunited with Tolsimir for the second time. Before Team Spacecrab and Heaven's Atlas, they were both on the Reservoir Dogs with BelgianGuy as well (3/11). Lastly, there are two Whzz Kids (2/11) in ][ntamin22 and Tolsimir, and two Flying Germans (2/11) in disneylandian (H2H6 and H2H3) and Coupon (H2H6). Disneylandian, Camcorder, dr dirt, Fisch and Tolsimir have all won H2H before, dirt and Fisch twice even.

Strangelove
Another old team name with no links to the original team. This team is probably the most inexperienced team in this H2H, with only one player having H2H experience before H2H6. There are still some reunions on this team though. From The Rat Pack from H2H7, Maverix, In:Cities and ottersalad (3/11) are back together. Captain G Force and In:Cities were both Hurricanes, in H2H7 and H2H6 respectively, making Strangelove (2/11) Hurricane. No one on the team has won H2H before.

UltraRealists
The members of this team have a combined number of six previous Hurricanes appearances, but five of those are simply Kumba's past H2H experiences. The only other former Hurricane is Shotguns? (H2H7), making this team only (2/11) Hurricane on paper. With FK+Coastermind and AvanineCommuter, this team is also (2/11) Heaven's Kitchen, and with alex and Rene also (2/11) Italian Stallion. Kumba, FK and Avanine have won H2H before, Kumba having won it twice.

Conclusion
It appears the members of Heaven's Gallery and Team Spacecrab are the most familiar with each other. Heaven's Gallery is the only team with four players who were on the same team in the same season before. Team Spacecrab and The Replacements also have four players that were on the same team before, but not in the same season. If team continuity is any indication of team cohesion and chemistry, these two teams should have a great season ahead of them. Heaven's Gallery has the most championships on board with eleven, but Team Spacecrab's championships are distributed over more people (five). Strangelove is the least experienced team with the least previous H2H team connections, with the Icons being not that much better, despite having some former champions on board.

Every team except Heaven's Gallery has exactly one former Manual Laborer. Heaven's gallery has 0. 

Interesting stuff, difficult to think about everyone’s past teams and current links without it mapped out, so thanks for sharing this

To be honest this data analysis would hold up better for strategy if H2H were yearly(ish) and not with 3 year gaps in between the last few.  As it is,  I'm not convinced there is much of a team culture to draw from outside the few with a regular captain.

this is liam's long drawn-out thesis of why his team is better than mine

To be honest this data analysis would hold up better for strategy if H2H were yearly(ish) and not with 3 year gaps in between the last few.  As it is,  I'm not convinced there is much of a team culture to draw from outside the few with a regular captain.

 

 

Reminds me of the idea I had for an ongoing H2H, I think around H2H5 time:

https://www.nedesign...refer/?p=507855

 

Even yearly H2H would be fantastic as a statistical treasure trove, but ongoing teams could start to get into pretty cool stats, basically becoming a 'pro' sport.

This reminds me that I need to post my team Elo ratings and predictions before the matches start!

Love any analysis, even if we get shafted

Hey ive been to the finals every h2h ive been in... just never won

I should have named my team "The Green Giants" because we are green and giant.

Liam I want to see this spreadsheet so badly! Have you ranked players at all?

well look who the cat showed up

Liam I want to see this spreadsheet so badly! Have you ranked players at all?

Yes! I want to update the data with H2H8 before posting it though, so you'd have to wait a couple of months. It's cool stuff.

This is a pretty interesting write up. it seems though that we of Strangelove are the underdogs... Well be prepared to be blown away.

this is liam's long drawn-out thesis of why his team is better than mine

 

Gotta be honest, this is all that went through my head as I was reading this haha 

From this, we can conclude that The Replacements are the best team. Might as well end the contest right now

Yeah pretty cool write up! I think its cool we have 3 members of the Rat Pack on Strangelove.. I like the continuity! It's interesting to see 2-3 people from other teams getting drafted together. Especially Spacecrab with 3 people from Heaven's Atlas. Gives a good picture of how the captain's drafted this season.

Why didn't you call this something cool like "stat pie"  or "Liam's Pie Charts"

 

Liampie's Big Bite: Sweet Stats for Dessert (brought to you by nicman)

"Liampie's Big Bite: Sweet Stats for Dessert (brought to you by nicman)"

 

- Michael Scott

2. H2H Veterans

Another light analysis before getting to the more complicated stuff. This time I want to focus on H2H veterans. In Episode I I already talked about what teams have the most championships under their belt, but I want to go further this team. How many collective H2H experiences* does each team have, and how many rookies?

*Having dropped out of a H2H team in this case counts as an H2H experience



Clearly, Heaven's Gallery has the most experienced team with a combined 24 previous seasons. For Six Frags, Roomie and Steve, this is their sixth H2H season! Roomie, by the way, is the only H2H2 veteran in H2H8. From the original H2H, no players remain*... Sulakke and Liampie are also getting up there in age, being in their fourth season.

*Since most information on the original H2H has been lost, this could be incorrect.

Team Spacecrab is not far behind with 20 combined seasons. None of them date back as far as the H2H2, H2H3 and H2H4 veterans of Heaven's Gallery though, aside from disneylandian's tiny H2H3 cameo. No, Team Spacecrab seems to be largely comprised of the H2H5/H2H6 generation of players like Fisch, dr dirt, Tolsimir and ][ntamin22 himself.

Unlike Team Spacecrab, the UltraRealists and the Icons despite being less experienced overall, have experience from before H2H5, respectively trav (debut in H2H4) and Kumba (debut H2H3). Least experienced teams seem to be the UltraRealists and Strangelove. The UltraRealists may have 1 appearance more than the Icons, but most of them are just from Kumba's long history and a large amount of H2H7 appearances. On the Icons, the experience seems to go a little deeper on average.

Strangelove are definitely this season's rookie team, with only ten combined seasons (less than one appearance per player!). Maverix is the 'oldest' player on team, having been a replacement (no capital R here) in H2H5; a position that wouldn't stand out on any other team.

Looking at rookies, by the way, the numbers are surprisingly consistent. Despite having so much more experience, Heaven's Gallery and Team Spacecrab have about the same amount of rookies as the other teams. There's no clear team that stands out here. What is reveals though is that the experience in Heaven's Gallery is most concentrated on a few members, and that the experience is spread thinnest on Strangelove.

Every H2H, as people sign up, there are some worries about not enough big established names signing up and how the rookies are going to play a big role this year. Do such things actually happen, or is the amount of veterans and rookies signing up for H2H consistent over the years?

Take a look at the figure below. On the x-axis you will find all the H2H seasons. The graphs show the 'survival' rate for each H2H in the subsequent seasons. For example, the red line shows what happened to the people who were in the original H2H*. Only 15 returned for H2H2. Then the number dropped to just a handful of players for the next few seasons until the group completely died out before H2H6.

*Again, most H2H1 information has been lost. Of 60 people who likely played in H2H1, we only know 27 names. The missing 33 names are considered retired after H2H1 for this analysis.



The red dotted line shows the amount of rookies signing up. It makes sense that in the early seasons, as the game was evolving and the website rapidly growning, most people had never participated in H2H before. Since H2H4 the amount of rookies is pretty much stable, except for H2H5.

H2H5 may be the most interesting, trend-breaking season according to this graph. It seems that H2H3 and H2H4 had a lot of overlap in players. This is not surprising, since H2H3 took place in 2005 and H2H4 in 2006, as opposed to the later seasons which were always three years apart. I think that most people who are aware of the site's history will place the transition from the old NE to the modern NE between H2H4 and H2H5. The H2H3/4 generation (and older) faded away and a new generation took over. 40 rookies out of 60 is a huge amount, looking purely at these numbers it seems a miracle that the season was as succesful as it was...

Since then, the H2H player base seems to be more and more loyal. The amount of people from a H2H season returning for the next edition has never been as high as now, with 39 players from H2H7 returning! I think it's a safe bet that H2H9 will have around 40 players from H2H8 returning. 25 talented people that were rudely dismissed in the H2H8 draft, of people that we haven't even heard of yet, will get picked for H2H9. Who will live, who will retire?
 
Have I missed anything interesting regarding this topic? Did I skip over something in interesting in the table and graph? Please leave a comment below, and don't forget to like and subscribe if you enjoyed this video thing!

][ntamin accidentally drafts the best team: Part 2