Pro Tour 4 / PT4 Predictions and Analysis

Well another contest at NE means I need to randomly write some words about things and whatever. People seem to enjoy them but as usual it's all based on my knowledge and opinions.

First up is an analysis of all those that have a free ride to the Final Round:

Elite crew

5dave- Sometimes it’s hard to tell how much he’s still invested into the community. His posting and advertising is usually kept to a minimum these days but he’s definitely a behind the scenes contributor, assisting with graphics and popping up any time a large NE event takes place. Pro Tour 4 certainly qualifies as big goings on and as defending champion, I hope 5dave can put some time aside to defend his crown. I’ve never been able to put a finger on exactly why his work is so good. It’s simply cute and fun and rides the line perfectly between the core gameplay of rct and modern aesthetics.

AvanineCommuter- A relative newcomer to NE, Avanine wasted no time showing his skills. With a refreshing style and vibrant imagination, he’s unafraid to tackle themes that are bigger than life. While there’s no question he has the goods, Avanine has certainly slowed down from his whirlwind debut a couple years ago. He seems to be slowly chipping away at some solo work and the screens are great. But if he chooses to participate in PT4, does he have the time to put together the intricate pile of awesome that we all know he’s capable of? It’s an interesting question and one where I hope the answer is a resounding yes!

CedarPoint6- Sadly there isn’t much to say about CP6 in regards to PT4. He’s a fan favorite with his realistic style and was a pioneer of a lot of current trends in the community. This time he’s decided to take his solo efforts to the next level so it’s unlikely we’ll see him participate. These are his words not mine, but hey, at least he’s SuperDuperAwesomeSauceElite *shrug*

disneylhand- He’s always been a bit of a dark horse in the community but when I looked back through what he’s released over the past few years, it was more than I thought. He has a good mix of NE contest experience, including placing well in PT3, and a handful of personal accolades. His style is very technical and focused and reminds me a bit of Phatage’s work. Dlh is a solid player and if he chooses to participate I’m sure he’ll be a contender for Top 5, maybe even Top 3 if he pulls out all the stops.

eyeamthu1- It’s a general consensus among the community that we have not seen enough work from this guy. His only accolade is a terrific Spotlight but then he dropped the microphone and went AWOL. I see you’ve logged in to check back in, get your rear in gear and surprise us all. Nobody gives a fuck how busy you think you are.

Fr3ak- I figured this guy was done with rct when he dumped all his unfinished work last Fall and exited stage left. It has been a long time since we’ve seen a complete piece of work from Fr3ak which is a shame because he’s really good. I see he’s popped his head back in and maybe, just maybe, we’ll see an attempt at an entry. Stranger things have happened.

J K- Where the fuck has Jonny been? I know he did well in H2H6 and all but has travelling the world and banging exotic women really left him so tired he can’t bother doing much besides making the odd post? Get it together man, it’s rct time.

jusmith- Another member to make himself scarce in the past few years. Jusmith has got skills in both LL and rct2 but has often struggled to finish solo ventures by himself. But yet again I see he’s started logging in after the PT4 announcement so I suppose an entry is not out of the question.

Kumba- A name that needs no further introduction. Darren has been around for a long time and has large quantities of experience and talent. He’s slowed down his solo work output lately but if he chooses to enter PT4 there is no question he’ll be a serious contender.

Liampie- Liampie has been on fire lately. I’m starting to wonder if there isn’t anything he won’t tackle. He’s a dual game threat, a team leader and even an admin. He’s put a lot of time in the community and I feel he’ll put together something special for the PT4 final round. The biggest question is what exactly will it be?

Loopy- It’s nice to see Loopy in the final round, he’s been around a long time and is really the staple LLer at this point. His style has developed into a very nice blend of old a new LL technique and I really hope he manages to get an entry in. He’s been somewhat inactive lately but like many others, PT4 seems to have sparked some life back into him.

Louis!- There is no doubt that Louis has been such a valuable member of the community lately, making things happen and being the voice of the admins. Much like Liampie, he’s extremely competent in rct and has tackled a wide variety of projects both LL and rct2. I fully expect to see some great work from him in the final round and if you doubt that I can only ask one thing; have you seen Jerusalem?

Milo- Woohoooo! I knew busting my balls on Tempest would pay off some day hahaha. But seriously, I have a shit track record for finishing things so this will be a tall order. However, when I qualified for PT3 I was so inspired I actually built the first 60% of Martian Waterworks in a month and a half. It’s just shame it’s taking me 5 years to do the rest />/>/>/>/>/> . But, I’m going to try and I might have some tricks up my sleeve to keep me motivated….

Pacificoaster- Streaming seems to really be keeping Pac grounded in the community. He has a ton of skill and there is no stronger confirmation than that than his performance in H2H6. With a recent Design under his belt hopefully there’s inspiration (and enough time) for him to get an entry together because obviously everything will have to be built 5-7 times to get it just right.

RCTNW- We haven’t seen a lot of RCTNW lately. His multi map mega projects were a sight to behold and were a great representation of his unique style. If he comes back in time to get something in I’m sure it’ll be impressive to look at, if nothing else. A 90x90 map? That’s like one building to him.

robbie92- A detail heavy style has kept Robbie from finishing many larger scale solo projects but maybe that can be put aside and Robbie and get an entry in for the final round. He has dabbled in LL and less detailed styles in the past and that is what he might have to again. Either way, I really hope to see an entry from him, as I’m sure the rest of the Robbie Hype Machine (also known as NE) does too.

Roomie- There are few who have ever been quite as prolific a member of the community that Roomie has been. He’s been around a long time and has always maintained a signature LL style. He takes risks on crazy ideas but never loses that old school charm we know him so well for. Interestingly, he has never participated in a PT before, so this could be his first. Or perhaps he’s just indifferent to PT and we’ll see some solo work. Fingers crossed he cobbles something together.

RRP- RRP is always doing a little something rct in the background, most recently his own interpretation of Diamond Heights in rct2. The few solo releases of his were all near 80% and what he lacks in quantity he makes up for in quality. At this point he really seems to go his own way though and it seems an entry from him is unlikely. If he did finish something it would undoubtedly be a potential winner.

Six Frags- A long time member who mixes long breaks from the community with popping up during the odd big event. This time around he’s shown up and it does seem like there is possibility of him participating in PT4. If that’s the case he can certainly be a potential winner. Despite a lack of productivity I feel he finally broke out of his shell a long time ago and his style now has that wow factor that it once lacked. I’d like to be proven right.

Steve- A great player and he’s been around a long time. He has tons of skill but unfortunately has shown little desire to pull together solo work for many years now. I don’t see an entry coming from him any time soon.

Turtle- Similar to Steve but a main difference is Turtle has randomly busted out some solid rct projects in the past several years. I’ll just keep my fingers crossed and say it’s less unlikely to see an entry from Jem, but not impossible.

Xophe- Yet another member to essentially tap out after winning Spotlight, the one beacon of hope is the fact that Xophe came out of nowhere with a Design a couple years ago. It’s unlikely he’ll get an entry in and even if he did, he’s such a dark horse it’s difficult to know what to expect. Maybe he’ll surprise us all again.


As prelim results come in I will also be adding analysis of those who qualify for the final round:

Qualifiers

Cocoa- pretty terrible

Airtime- trash

nin- won't finish

Jan.K- who?

Fizzix- got lucky, will fail

Sey- uhhhhhhhhh

Sulakke- I'd hoped he'd stopped playing

Dimi- shit at both games... see Cocoa

BelgianGuy- [insert joke about beer />/>]

Maverix- 8000 projects can't be wrong, or maybe can't be right

Shotguns?- />/>

SSSammy- stick to TF2, buddy

Fisch- rhymes with can't finish

As always, a fantastic read Milo. Hopefully you will get to smack my name up there later, but we shall see. Till then, I'll look forward to reading ur insight.

FK

Yep, nice read Milo, and glad to hear you might build something. Man, there are so many good players out there, those in the elite and not, that I think it will be a close competition. GL to everyone.

Fantastic read as always. Moved to the PT forum like we spoke about earlier.

I can't wait to read each review of the qualifiers as they come in. And thanks for the kind words

Yay!

EDIT: Mind if others try these player reviews?

Thanks, guys.

@robbie, nope I don't mind... in fact I encourage it

Fantastic read Milo! I'll be adding my two cents sometime in the next few days too.

Nice words

Milo, a great read as usual. I hope to find the time to submit an entry, as long as I can muster up the energy to locate a copy of Windows

I’ve never been able to put a finger on exactly why his work is so good.

Same goes for your analyses! I always enjoy them a lot.

EDIT: Mind if others try these player reviews?

The more the merrier, but personally I think the analyses make more sense once the prelims are done so we have a clear view of how the final round is going to look like. I wait with my analysis.

I hope to find the time to submit an entry, as long as I can muster up the energy to locate a copy of Windows

Make me happy.

Do we have any idea who all has said that they are planning to enter?

MILO COME ON NOW I WANT TO KNOW THE REST THANKS.

yea! fuck you FK!






EDIT: wrong thread.

i want to know if you like me milo

like, do you like me, or like-like me

]['s completely unscientific predictions

This being an NE contest the biggest question is who will actually finish anything. Since we haven't heard too much about who has stated their intent to enter, here's my likelihood-of-finishing-an-entry index.

Updated as I hear from people.

Pre-Qualifiers

70% - 5dave - reliably impressive work, history of good contests
50% - AvanineCommuter - computer complications
40% - Cedarpoint6 - lurking, unlikely to commit to a full park
10% - disneylhand - haven't seen anything of him lately
0% - eyeamthu1 - hasn't visited since march
70% - Fr3ak - more than likely
40% - J K - sort of a mystery
0% - jusmith - last work a year or more ago, lost interest
10% - Kumba - Apparently no room in his 5-year plan
90% - Liampie - Extremely productive lately
70% - Loopy - active and interested, as best I can tell
90% - Louis! - Will be very surprised not to see one from him
20% - Milo - Milo make a thing please
70% - Pacificoaster - Pac has other projects to show on streams
60% - RCTNW - Considering his building speed, all up to him
90% - mala - my odds-on favorite
20% - Robbie92 - isn't he in France or something
90% - Roomie - fire up the LL assembly line
40% - RRP - chances of seeing finished work not promising
80% - Six Frags - I'm pretty convinced he'll get it done
20% - Steve - has suddenly discovered something more important
50% - Turtle - may be tough without teammates to bounce off of
40% - Xophe - he's showed up out of the blue before


Prelim Qualifiers

30% - Cocoa - One does not simply stop watching GoT
50% - Airtime - I wish we saw more of your work dude
80% - nin - finish a thing please
60% - Jan.K - I have no idea
70% - Fizzix - is very sportsmanlike and has no school
40% - Sey - Apparently active at Guide?
60% - Sulakke - I have no idea
70% - Dimi - lovely prelim, hopefully that continues
50% - BelgianGuy - may lose motivation due to (lack of) beer


Wildcard Qualifiers

90% - Maverix - hasn't he built like 8 designs in the past year
40% - Shotguns? - solo work yet to be proven, imho
70% - SSSammy - Depends how seriously he takes it?
80% - Fisch - I demand greatness

Commentators and Analyzers

60% - Milo - I predict Milo forgets to finish predicting


Concluding Comments

Obviously I would absolutely love to see entries from everyone, but fact is that will not happen. If anything I hope this kind of goofy take on predictions will encourage some lurkers to prove me wrong. />/>/>/>

Interesting read ][. Nice job.

Milo I'd love to read more of your prediction/analysis.

Your prediction of Mala's likelihood of entering is far too low. At least a 98% chance of entering.

I predict this will be a kick-ass contest! (and already is btw )

here is an indication of my current dedication:

I recently started watching game of thrones, and also started playing pokemon diamond. but with big exams coming up, im putting all my free time on hold to play rct

I'll give it two weeks before I lose steam

Well I'm currently computer less for the next two weeks, so I get less time to do what I was planning on doing.... Which also means things are going to get cut from the park

Sketching ideas daily though, really excited for this!