Pro Tour 2 / The Official PT2 Predictions Topic

I'm thinkin' tommorow will be trav or Jazz, no offense to either.

I really liked the look of Magnus's screen, so I'm putting him in my top ten.

-ACE

i don't think trav entered

I'm pretty sure Trav didn't enter. At least I might have got the line-up right

1:Phatage
2:cBass
3:JKay
4:X250
5:Corkscrewed
6:Titan
7:Xcoaster
8:ride6
9:Jazz
10:trav
11:Magnus
12:Six Frags
13:Old Red
And lastly Kumba

Yes, I do have trav before Magnus, maybe some crazy inspiration came in those 3 weeks...

you don't even know who entered but want to be sure on who made which place?
must have really been a crazy inspiration.

and congrats to everybody who entered and whose park hasn't been posted yet. you are in the top10.

^I don't think it's that much of an accomplishment to finish in the top 10, like last PT.. Seeing that there were only 14 entries, and number 10 is only four places away being last..

SF

Edited by Six Frags, 22 February 2006 - 06:54 AM.

i think you have to see that from a different point of view.

there were more than 30 maybe even 40 people allowed to enter. the fact that you are one of the 14 who are able to finish something for the contest is already something that makes you stand out a bit.
and then there is this wonderful park for 11th place. the other 10 parks must be really good. maybe the 10 best parks ever being released in one contest.
so being in the top10 is a really big accomplishment.

Here's my 14:

14. Kumba
13. Old Red
12. Six Frags
11. DarkJanus
10. Jazz
9. ride6
8. Magnus
7. Titan
6. Xcoaster
5. X250
4. Corkscrewed
3. JKay
2. cBass
1. Phatage

-ACE

i think you have to see that from a different point of view.

there were more than 30 maybe even 40 people allowed to enter. the fact that you are one of the 14 who are able to finish something for the contest is already something that makes you stand out a bit.
and then there is this wonderful park for 11th place. the other 10 parks must be really good. maybe the 10 best parks ever being released in one contest.
so being in the top10 is a really big accomplishment.

Magnus, I was comparing it to the PT1.. And I think there were also around 30-35 people allowed to enter the PT1. (NE Parkmakers + 16 pre-lim qualification).. And in the end 23 entered, more NE Parkmakers entered, so I think in the end it was a lot harder to finish in the top 10..

SF

^Correct. Simply stated the larger the field, the harder it is to place in top 10, regardless of how many could have entered. Its all based on only those who did enter.

A simple probability calculation can prove this. By entering this contest, you automatically get the following chances of placing in the top 10:

PT1:
10 / 23 = 43.47% chance

PT2:
10 / 14 = 71.42% chance





And no, I'm not a nerd. Just slightly bored here at work this morning. Don't really want to be here today *sniffle*

i doubt maths is the right language for this.

i'd say many people did not enter because it was way harder to enter and make a good position this year. as a result of that those who entered already accomplished something big.
compare the place 11 parks of both years and see where it was harder to get into the top 10.

Edited by Magnus, 22 February 2006 - 09:31 AM.

We'll have to see this years top 10 to justify your statement magnus.. As it also could be that some of the judges found number 11 obviously weaker than the parks in the top ten, and placed them lower than we (=NE community) would place them.. Number 11 doesn't says anything YET about the quality of this years contest/top 10 in MY opinion..

SF

I would just like to point out now amused I am that every time a new park comes out and then people predict again, Jazz simply gets bumped up to the next available spot. Obviously, people will have to be right sooner or later, but it's kind of funny how he was predicted to be last, then 13th, then 12th, then 11th, and he still hasn't placed yet.

Just a minor stupid observation.

you don't even know who entered but want to be sure on who made which place?
must have really been a crazy inspiration.

and congrats to everybody who entered and whose park hasn't been posted yet. you are in the top10.

Hey, we're all guessing here, why get pissed at me?

...maybe I shouldn't have pointed that out ...

Yes, yes, congrats to those in the top ten...

Edited by CoasterCrzy, 23 February 2006 - 12:35 AM.

I would just like to point out now amused I am that every time a new park comes out and then people predict again, Jazz simply gets bumped up to the next available spot.  Obviously, people will have to be right sooner or later, but it's kind of funny how he was predicted to be last, then 13th, then 12th, then 11th, and he still hasn't placed yet.

Just a minor stupid observation.

I don't like your tone. And by that, Rhynos for the WIN!!!

While cbass made an interesting observation about some possible scoring extremes in some of the remaining parks, I just noticed this.

We have 9 parks left, but according to my educated guess on who entered there are at least 10 left. Of course my guess is based on who posted screens and who did say they were submitting:

Phatage - posted screen, we all know he submitted
cbass - posted screen, 99% sure he submitted
Titan - questionable, I thought he submitted something, possibly unfinished tho
Steve - posted screen, also said he submitted
JKay - I KNOW I SUBMITTED
X250 - posted screen, 99% sure he submitted
Jazz - Iris confirmed reciept of his entry
ride6 - posted screen, 99% sure he submitted
Corkscrewed - posted screen - 99% sure he submitted
Xcoaster - posted screen, 99% sure he submitted

That means that one of the above people either didn't enter, or got d/q'd.

Am I missing something? Is Titan the missing link?
:' /> :' />

maybe there's a tie

If there was a tie, you wouldn't have said that . I still think that Titan is the link here, i think he sent in an unfinished entry but it won't be accepted in the actual competition. But I believe it may be released as a "bonus" at the end as It's bound to be freaking awesome.

Just for the record...if that was the case, I don't think I would have accepted Kumba's as finished either....

No one plays poker here?

^I don't get it.

But Metro, your theory doesn't work because Toon doesn't know any of the other judges results and therefore he wouldn't know if theres a tie. so with that, and based on iris' response, there must be a tie somewhere.